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10/26/11

Why the Cain Ascendancy is Good News for Ron Paul


The manner of coverage of Presidential elections by the so called news media usually focuses on the "horse race" aspects of the campaigns. And for someone who reads as much political crapola as I do, I try to ignore that nonsense as much as is possible. But it is fascinating, even if it should be irrelevant, so I plead guilty to some bottom feeding here. I'm never as far above the fray as I'd like to be, indeed I fail more often than I succeed. So let's descend together and take a look at the horse race for a bit.

The current President seems to have decided on his strategy for trying to be the worst President to ever be re-elected. It's nothing novel in politics, but rather an old tried and true plan. You just give stuff away as fast as you can and see how many of the simple minded or morally corruptible electorate you can attract in an attempt to turn your re-election chuck wagon into a bandwagon.

In the last few days Obama has circumvented the constitutional process once again as he announced that he intends to change the rules for underwater home owners so they can re-finance their mortgages with taxpayer's money if they were fortunate enough to have had their obligations purchased by the fascist* entities Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

And today it was announced that he would exercise executive authority to jigger the system for student loans so that he buy the student vote that he enjoyed for free the last time out. He figures these younger voters can be bought for a few dollars a month as long as they were dim witted enough to have not learned a thing in college during the time since he was elected and this cynical move was made.

It remains to be seen if it's that easy but he has history on his side since they fell for all that nonsense about hope and change last time. So we shall see, but it didn't work out so well for the Illinois Governor (Blaggo) Obama so enthusiastically endorsed because that guy is on his way to a stretch in the federal pen despite having employed the exact same strategy.

But as long as we're talking about campaign strategy and such instead of addressing concepts and ideas, (which is what I usually at least try to aspire to) let's take a look at what has happened to the early front runners in the Republican primary race as they rise and fall faster than the stock market.

No one of sound mind who actually wants real change from the disastrous course we are on is a true Mitt Romney supporter, but he has a lot of votes from the "anybody who can beat Obama" crowd. So even though he can be found as "Obama lite" on your presidential beer menu, he has seen some amount of steady, if unenthusiastic, support in the polls. He is first choice of the left leaning media for certain.

But among rational people the game plan has been to find an "anybody who can beat Romney" candidate to take Obama on. So let's look at those who have occupied that spot and what has happened to them since they were "scrootened" by the media when they reached the top.

First there was Michelle Bachmann who dropped like a rock in the polls after a few gaffes and a little more scrutiny. She is currently at about 1% support.

Then there was Rick Perry who zoomed to the front of the race as soon as he announced his candidacy but before he was scrootened in the debates. He has dropped to  fifth place as he tries to figure out if he can regain some sparkle with a fresh look at Obama's birth certificate, a strategy meeting with nut job Donald Trump, and a new stab at the flat tax proposal that Steve Forbes championed way back when.

Leaving aside all those who were hopeful they could be the "Anybody but Romney" candidate when their candles flickered out before they could be seen, (Tim Pawlenty, Huntsman , Santorum, etal.) we have next "flame out" candidate Herman Cain as the front runner.

Herman is a nice guy (as I have written about) who is clearly in over his head in his first at bat against political major league pitching. Realistically, his 9-9-9 plan is a non-starter after being scrutinized by both the left and the right and his early gaffes (mostly forgiven so far), bizarre new TV ad, and lack of funding and professional staff even in the early primary states tell me that he will be an easy target and I predict he will not make the final cut when all is said and done and the actual voting starts.

If I am correct and he fades, what will the final four look like? Assuming Romney doesn't totally flop (one can only hope) in New Hampshire and Iowa, that leaves Perry, Paul and old standby Newt Gingrich to oppose him.

Many pundits have dismissed Gingrich and Paul long ago and might have a hard time backtracking, but one thing is for sure, Paul is in it for the long haul because he has tons of money coming in from tens of thousands of small donors in the so called "money bombs", has extensive organisations on the ground in almost all the states, and he has the most enthusiastic supporters of anyone left in that group. He also has the track record of consistency and willingness to take on the media from both sides of political spectrum. Additionally, he is a known quantity. No surprises are coming because everyone already knows who he is, what he stands for and that he won't be flip flopping, because he never has before. So there is no "flash in the pan" dimension to his candidacy that would allow a fade away like the others.

Paul also has the advantage of being the most different from Obama and his ideology of any other candidate. His campaign against Obama will provide America with a choice of directions that will be more stark than any in modern history. A chance to choose between big government socialism or constitutional Americanism. 

Predicting elections and political trends is a fools errand. So even though I have been called a fool on more than one occasion, sometimes correctly, I won't prove it this time by doing that. But I will tell you what I think might happen now that things are starting to get closer to actual elections. My fools errand scenario goes like this;

After Cain proves only to be  the "leader du jour", and the voting starts, Paul will benefit from lower expectations by the media as Romney fades away after disappointing the higher expectations he never deserved. Perry never shows broad enough support in (or at) the polls except from donors and people start to look at Newt as a possible resurrected savior. Could it end up to be Paul vs Gingrich on "Super Tuesday?"

Politics is strange. Maybe not as strange as this scenario, but strange nevertheless. A Paul win would provide clarity in the general election. And clarity is something I think the country is ready for.

Potential employers and the stock market love clarity. But personally, I for one would just love to know whether it's time to rebuild the country or start stocking up on shelter supplies and hoarding precious metals.


*One good definition for the word fascism is ; an economic system where property is privately owned but government controlled.

1 comment:

conservativesonfire said...

I have been telling people that when the other candidates get done knifing each other tha Paul and Gingrich may be the only two left standing. I originally believed and I guess I still believe that Newt is in this race to win a cabinet position. Just sayin...